In Colombia, there will be no peace without oil

Semana, the leading weekly publication in Colombia, ran an opinion piece by Alfonso Cuéllar, outlining and exploring the ties between Colombia’s oil industry and the peace negotiations with the ELN and the FARC. Cuéllar explains that the FARC, in recognition of its weakened military might, has started targeting oil companies. The FARC accurately gauges the oil companies as an inexhaustible source of funds, and has targeted them with extortions and kidnappings, bombing pipelines and refineries, and causing tremendous environmental devastation in the process.

According to Cuéllar, if the FARC and the ELN lay down their weapons, the biggest winner will be the Colombian oil industry. Oil companies will no longer have to devote so many resources to security and will be able to focus on extracting oil in a profitable, environmentally-friendly, and socially-acceptable manner. Cuéllar adds that, paradoxically, so many actors in Colombian society are making it more and more difficult to explore and extract oil and gas in Colombia. He stresses that without the resources generated by the oil industry, there will be no way to pay for the resolution of the peace process. There is no Post Conflict without oil revenues.

Cuéllar calls out the hypocrisy in those who fiercely oppose fracking yet are also the first in supporting and defending the necessity of peace negotiations, and the need to invest billions of dollars in social programs to make ensure that the peace is permanent. He stresses that without fracking, the Post Conflict is impossible. There is no Plan B – there are no alternative funding sources.

This clear-eyed view on the social importance of the Colombian oil industry is refreshing, and also provides insight into the second- and third-order effects of a peace process. Done right, the improved security conditions will be a boon to Colombian industry, and enable continued economic growth.